Gold shortage continues to rise-巴雷特m82a1

The lack of gold continued to rise – based newspaper reporter Wu Xintao noble metal company (Precious Metals Insights) on executive director Philip Mr Klapwijk recently accepted Chinese Securities News reporter said, is expected in the second half of the increase in the international price of gold will be very limited, this is mainly due to the tightening of us monetary policy, the dollar will be further strengthened and the fundamentals of supply and demand weak constraints. Recently, the market panic warming, hedge assets sought after, leading to New York market gold prices all the way higher. As of February 12th, the New York gold futures price and the spot price were harvested weekly four with Yang, was upside to above $1260 an ounce, the highest in the past 1 years a new high. Fundamentals do not support soaring precious metals perspective, headquartered in Hongkong, china. Clapp Vic has served as chief metals analyst at Thomson Reuters GFMS. Clapp Vic said that the fed in the interest rate decision is indeed much more cautious than the previous statement, the market for the Federal Reserve this year’s interest rate is expected to generally reduce from four times to two times. But in any case, the rise in U.S. interest rates will support the dollar upward, the corresponding euro and most emerging market currencies will decline. Clapp Vic said, from the point of view of supply and demand of the market, the supply of gold market is relatively abundant, the new mineral project can bring incremental supply at the same time, the existing mineral project in the effective cost control, as a whole, the market supply is still relatively abundant. Consumer demand for gold jewelry will be revived this year, but the recovery is relatively small, such as the limited demand for gold jewelry in major markets such as India and china. He said: "from a cyclical point of view, the demand for solid gold in Asia, such as gold and gold bars, will provide a bottom support for gold prices, but this bottom will not be too high, or maybe lower than last year. At the same time, the gold demand of institutional investors is very limited, in which the central bank’s net purchase of gold may be lower, which will bring significant pressure on the price of gold." Clapp Vic’s prediction is similar to the annual report released by the World Gold Council last week. According to the World Gold Council report, the global gold demand in 2015 was 4212.2 tons, lower than the previous year’s 4226.4 tons; last year, the global gold supply declined by 4% to 4258 tons, of which the fourth quarter decreased greatly. According to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) survey report recently released the first half of this year, analysts expect the average gold price of $1091, the annual average price of $1103, that is to say the second half than the first half of the price of gold is expected to achieve modest growth, but the annual average price of less than $1160 in 2015. The interviewed analysts believe that the U.S. presidential election, the euro zone and emerging economies uncertainty and geopolitical situation will bring turmoil to the gold market. Other precious metals are not optimistic about the mechanism of in addition to gold, other precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium prices this year is not optimistic expectations. Clapp Vic predicts the average price of silver this year

黄金缺乏持续上涨基础   □本报记者 吴心韬   贵金属透视公司(Precious Metals Insights)执行董事菲利普・克拉普维克近日在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示,预计国际金价下半年的升幅将十分有限,这主要受美国收紧货币政策、美元将进一步走强以及供需基本面较为疲软等因素的制约。   近期,市场恐慌情绪升温,避险资产受到追捧,导致纽约市场的黄金价格一路走高。截至2月12日,纽约黄金现货价格和期货价格均收获周线四连阳,一度上攻至每盎司1260美元以上,创过去近1年的新高。   基本面不支持大涨   贵金属透视公司总部位于中国香港。克拉普维克曾任汤森路透GFMS公司首席金属分析师。   克拉普维克表示,美联储在加息决策方面的确比之前的表态要谨慎得多,市场对于美联储今年的加息次数预期也普遍从四次减少为两次。但无论如何,美国利率的走高会支持美元汇率上行,相应的欧元和大多数新兴市场货币汇率会走低。   克拉普维克说,从市场供需角度来看,黄金市场的供给相对充足,新的矿产项目能够带来增量供给的同时,已有的矿产项目在进行有效的成本控制,整体而言,市场供给仍较为充裕。消费者对黄金首饰的需求在今年会有所复苏,但是复苏的程度相对较小,如主要市场如印度和中国的黄金珠宝需求增幅十分有限。   他说:“从周期性的角度来看,亚洲的实体黄金如金饰和金条需求会给金价提供一个底部支持,只是这个‘底部’不会太高,或许还会低于去年。与此同时,机构投资者的黄金需求十分有限,其中央行的净购买黄金数量或许还会走低,这会给金价带来明显下压。”   克拉普维克的预测和上周世界黄金协会发布的年度报告有相似之处。据世界黄金协会的报告,2015年全球黄金需求量为4212.2吨,低于前一年的4226.4吨;去年全球黄金供应下滑4%至4258吨,其中第四季度减产幅度较大。   据伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)近期发布的调查报告,分析师预计今年上半年黄金均价为1091美元,全年均价为1103美元,也就是说下半年金价有望比上半年实现小幅增长,但全年均价要低于2015年的1160美元。受访的分析师认为,美国总统大选、欧元区和新兴经济体的不确定性以及地缘局势会给金市带来一定动荡。   其它贵金属不被看好   除了黄金之外,机构均对其他贵金属如银、铂金和钯金今年的价格走势也不抱乐观预期。   克拉普维克预计,今年全年银均价为每盎司13.19美元,价格顶为14.89美元,底为11.96美元;铂金均价为828美元,价格顶为948美元,底为772美元;钯金均价为492美元,价格顶为605美元,底为442美元。   他认为,相比黄金,银价走势在经济下行期更能反映市场的信心疲软,因为除了美元走强和大宗商品价格走低之外,实体经济的疲软还会导致工业用银减少。铂金和钯金的价格走势也受到黄金价格的走势牵连,全年面临较大下压。不过,作为工业用途,铂金和钯金都是汽车生产环节中的催化剂,全球汽车生产尽管增速会有所下滑,但整体基数较大,这会给铂金和钯金价格提供一个较好的底部支持。   据LBMA的调查报告,分析师预计,今年上半年银均价为每盎司13.98美元,全年均价为14.74美元,低于去年全年均价15.68美元;分析师还预计今年上半年铂金和钯金均价为每盎司864美元和每盎司503.78美元,全年均价为503.78美元和568美元,也比去年全年的实际均价低了10%左右。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: