对于行情的企稳回升有一定的助推作用 摘下满天星歌词

The internal and external environment of positive changes in A stocks ushered in the "NPC and CPPCC" layout time sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors during the Spring Festival holiday, the Securities Times reporter Tang Yaping, Europe and the United States, a Japanese stock market plunged, many people after the opening of A shares trend pinch to sweat. But analysts believe that there is no need to panic, after the Spring Festival, China will usher in an important meeting of the world’s attention, in accordance with past stock market trends, A shares rising probability of 73% in February, rising probability of 62% in March. From this point of view, although the beginning of January this year unfavorable, but the next spring market is still worth looking forward to. Investors are most worried about is that the external market slump, A shares opened after the festival is down? Analysts believe that, accurately, not to say that A shares after the fall, it is better to say that the external stock market in the A shares during the market off. The first month of 2016, the stock index fell 22.65%, A shares over the past 26 years since its opening, the worst record in 8 years since the largest decline, sixth all-time monthly decline. Over the same period, the S & P 500 index fell 5.1%, European stock markets fell by more than 6%, Japan’s stock market fell by over 7%, although the same bleak, but far below the A share decline. A stock market compared to the highest point is close to "cut" panic has greatly released, while outside the stock market compared to the highest point of the previous bull market generally only fell by about 20%. In the past few years, under the stimulus of loose monetary policy, the economy has been depressed, but the stock market has boomed. For example, the Japanese stock market has doubled, and the German stock market has doubled. Therefore, the external market after the fall is conducive to A shares rebounded steadily. From another point of view, during the period when A shares were closed, the stock markets in Europe, America and Japan generally declined, indicating that the "responsibility" of global stock market falling is not in china. On the contrary, before the A shares opened, the peripheral stock market finally saw some sunshine last Friday, magically ended the decline for several days, indicating that international investors hope for the trend of A shares festival. Further analysis shows that the peripheral stock market crisis mainly comes from financial stocks. Credit Suisse a week fell 18%, the stock has hit a 24 year low; Deutsche Bank a weekly decline of about 8%, since the subprime crisis has hit a new low; other European banks also fell, and one end, a record low since the last crisis. And the support of A share market comes from financial stocks. A shares have 16 listed banks, under the strong support of the central bank, the A shares of listed banks can not happen similar to the critical situation of the European and American banking industry. And bank shares is currently the Shanghai stock market earnings, the lowest valuation of blue chip sector, also has the advantage in the international market of financial stocks. In addition, A recent stock market environment there have been some positive changes: one is economic emergence of quantitative easing signs again, U.S. interest rates at least until 2016, Europe and Japan implement negative interest rate policy; the two is for a week the dollar index plummeted, the RMB exchange rate in a stable environment, welcome during the Spring Festival, the offshore renminbi rose to around 6.53, and rarely appeared upside down in the onshore RMB, US dollar index theory

内外环境出现积极变化 A股迎来“两会”布局时间 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   证券时报记者 汤亚平   春节休市期间,欧美、日本股市一片惨跌,许多人对节后A股开盘走势捏把汗。但有分析人士认为不必恐慌,春节过后,中国将迎来举世瞩目的重要会议,按照过往股市走势看,A股2月上涨概率为73%,3月上涨概率在62%。由此观之,虽然今年1月开局不利,但接下来春季行情仍值得期待。   投资者眼前最担心的是,外围市场暴跌,A股节后开盘是否补跌?分析人士认为,准确地看,与其说A股节后补跌,不如说外围股市在A股休市期间补跌。   2016年的第一个月,沪指暴跌22.65%,A股诞生26年来开年最差纪录、8年以来最大跌幅,单月跌幅历史上排第六。同期,标普500指数下跌5.1%,欧洲股市下跌逾6%,日本股市下跌超7%,虽然同样惨淡,但远低于A股跌幅。   A股市场相比最高点已经接近“腰斩”,恐慌情绪已经得到较大的释放,而外围股市相比此前牛市的最高点仅普遍下跌了20%左右。过去几年中,在宽松货币政策的刺激下,各国经济虽低迷但股市却一片繁荣,例如日本股市涨了一倍,德国股市也涨了一倍。因此,外围市场补跌后有利于A股企稳反弹。换一个角度看,A股休市期间,欧美、日本股市普遍下跌,表明全球股市下跌的“责任”不在中国。相反,在A股开市前,外围股市在上周五总算见到些许阳光,神奇般结束了连续数日跌势,表明国际投资人对A股节后走势寄予希望。   进一步分析来看,此次外围股市危机主要来自于金融股。瑞士信贷银行一周暴跌18%,股价已经创下了24年的新低;德意志银行一周跌幅约8%,已经创下了次贷危机以来新低;其他欧洲银行也是狂跌,一泻到底,创下了上次危机以来的新低。   而A股市场的支撑恰恰来自于金融股。A股有16家上市银行,在央行强有力的支持下,A股的上市银行不可能发生类似欧美银行业的危急情况。而且银行股目前是深沪股市市盈率、市净率最低的蓝筹股板块,在国际市场的金融股中也具有估值优势。   此外,近期A股市场内外环境出现了一些积极变化:一是各国经济再次出现量化宽松苗头,美国加息至少推迟至2016年之后,欧洲、日本实施负利率政策;二是美元指数连续一周暴跌,人民币汇率迎来可喜的稳定环境,春节期间,离岸人民币大涨至6.53附近,与在岸人民币出现罕见的倒挂,显示美元指数大幅回落导致人民币短期贬值压力下降;三是国内有色产品价格上涨,房地产市场迎来首付比例降低等一系列利好,从大环境上给A股走稳提供了条件。   步入2016年,一揽子稳增长的政策仍将集中发力。国务院批准“11+6+3+1”计划将进入实施阶段,即国家发改委牵头的11个投资工程包,6大消费工程,国家3大战略——“一带一路”战略、京津冀协同发展战略、长江经济带建设,“1”则是国际产能合作。2016年全社会固定资产投资50多万亿元,将主要通过投融资体制改革,通过特许经营、PPP模式来吸引社会投资,非常值得关注。   分析人士认为,2月开始A股进入“两会”前的维稳时期,对于行情的企稳回升有一定的助推作用。“两会”期间,将出台“十三五规划”,对所涉及的相关板块和热点有一个刺激作用。春节后一个月,市场活跃度将会明显增加,一些政策扶持行业和主题可能走出较好的行情。技术上,股指已成功站上10日均线,基本摆脱前期下跌趋势,为A股延续反弹创造了条件。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: